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Betting sites

 

 

Attacks on Trump

 

 

Misc info sources

 

 

Articles on the betting odds

 

 

 

Articles supporting a prediction that Trump will lose

  • 2015.12.14 - FiveThirtyEight - Polls Suggest Trump Will Win Between 8 Percent And 64 Percent Of The Vote
    • This is a good article.
    • MI: Most of the voters who will eventually decide the Republican nomination haven't yet made up their mind.

    • You can see there’s definitely a correlation. Six of the 12 eventual nominees were leading at this point in the national polls. But they were all polling better than Trump is now. Not only that, but 52 percent of the variation in the eventual results go unexplained. That’s a mathy way of saying that a lot tends to happen from this point on. There have been collapses: Giuliani in 2008 and John Glenn in 1984. There have been surges: Barack Obama in 2008 and John Kerry in 2004. Glenn, for example, consistently polled as well or better than Trump is nationally and in the early primary states, and Glenn fell off the map completely once voting began.

      Put another way, past campaigns suggest that 95 percent of the time, Trump’s eventual percentage of the national primary vote will be between 8 percent and 64 percent. And there’s reason to think Trump will end up on the lower end of that range. He doesn’t have a single endorsement from a governor or member of Congress, and those endorsements have historically been predictive of the eventual winner. [NW: But Jeb had all of those and did terribly, right?]

  • 2015.11.04 - FiveThirtyEight - The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
  • 2015.11.23 - FiveThirtyEight - Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

 

Articles supporting a prediction that Trump will win

  • 2015.12.21 - WND - Phyllis Schlafly: Trump is 'last hope for America'
  • 2015.12.21 - LA Times - Polls may actually underestimate Trump's support, study finds

    • The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and media company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.

      The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

      Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.
      (...)
      The most telling part of the experiment, however, was that not all types of people responded the same way. Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump's support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a significant difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.

      The most likely explanation for that education gap, Dropp and his colleagues believe, is a well-known problem known as social-desirability bias -- the tendency of people to not want to confess unpopular views to a pollster.

      Blue-collar voters don't feel embarrassed about supporting Trump, who is very popular in their communities, the pollsters suggested. But many college-educated Republicans may hesitate to admit their attraction to Trump, the experiment indicates.

 

 

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