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WIRED 24 Hour Play Competition

  • I'm reminded of the success we had with "Let's Make a Baby!"
  • We definitely had by-far the best script. I think that's analogous to what Ben Horowitz calls "product-market fit", aka "a good idea".
  • ...but we also had a good team, with good people in especially key roles

 

 

 



Watch out for new technology



Mark Cuban:

3. Know as much as you can about technology

The beautiful thing about technology is that it changes ever day. Look at any tech you can see today or have ever seen. Any tech you have read about. It was invented by someone(s). They know the product better than everyone. On the day that it is released, you are as knowledgeable about that technology as anyone else in the world. From there its just about effort to keep learning.

If you are one of the few people that know the new technologies, you are in a unique position to put yourself in the shoes of your customer(s) and determine if the new technology can be of benefit. New technologies enable change and where there is change there is opportunity. Its up to you to figure out what that opportunity is.



Method: Watch the research divisions at companies
- A lot of the innovations that Apple and Windows made money on were generated at Xerox PARC
- I need to generate a list of research divisions...but the problem is that a lot of them are pretty secretive.
- - Google[x]
- - Xerox PARC (not operational anymore 

Method: Watch the research at universities

- MIT's Media Lab
- Watch the research papers that come out in journals


Method: Watch the research people are doing and act quickly to commercialize it before anyone else does.

- Steve Jobs did this with Xerox PARC's research. That's how he got the idea for a windows-based GUI.
- Larry Ellison apparently did this with research being done by people at IBM(?). That's how he got the idea for Oracle.
- Larry Page apparently did this to some extent with the idea for Google, b/c using back-links to rank webpages was being discussed already when he went to Stanford.
- Sam Walton did this by interviewing other store managers on how they operated.


Spend your time / money differently than average people



- If you find yourself spending a significant amount of your free time doing things that lots of other people are doing, you should ask yourself, "Why will I become more successful than them if I'm behaving just like them?"

- Examples of things that most people spend a significant amount of their free time doing: watch TV, watch movies, play videogames, watch sports games, talk / gchat with their friends, go out to restaurants, go shopping, listen to music



Get skilled


- You're going to have to be good at what you're doing, but you may not have to be a world-class expert [although that certainly seems to help a lot]. You may be able to find others who are really good at things that you are just OK at.

Examples:
- Mark Zuckerberg was a good programmer but not a world-class expert.
- Eminem was probably a good rapper before he teamed up with the Bass brothers but I have a feeling they may have contributed a lot to his style.
- George Lucas was a good director when he started making Star Wars but the final product was largely a result of the amazing team he had assembled.
- Stephen Bax, who seems to have made great progress decoding the Voynich Manuscript (a mysterious book written in an unknown language) had obviously spent many years learning many different languages and the history of different civilizations before he was able to solve the problem of decoding the manuscript. Watch his presentation and think about what kind of background knowledge he would have needed to make the intellectual leaps he makes:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpZD_3D8_WQ. For example, he knew how Hieroglyphics and Linear B had been decoded, and he knew that many ancient languages had very similar ways of saying the same word (like the names of plants), and he knew about the research that other academics had done on the book, like identifying the different plants it showed. That kind of knowledge takes years of work.
- Henry Ford:

...from the time I saw that road engine as a boy of twelve right forward to to-day, my great interest has been in making a machine that would travel the roads. Driving to town I always had a pocket full of trinkets--nuts, washers, and odds and ends of machinery. Often I took a broken watch and tried to put it together. When I was thirteen I managed for the first time to put a watch together so that it would keep time. By the time I was fifteen I could do almost anything in watch repairing--although my tools were of the crudest. There is an immense amount to be learned simply by tinkering with things. It is not possible to learn from books how everything is made--and a real mechanic ought to know how nearly everything is made. Machines are to a mechanic what books are to a writer. He gets ideas from them, and if he has any brains he will apply those ideas.

Source: Henry Ford, "My Life and Work"


- The maker of Gunpoint (a successful indie videogame) stressed the importance of trying the games that people are talking about so that you can understand what it is that attracts people to them (which can help you make your own games better). This seems to be exactly Henry Ford's advice above.
- Palmer Luckey of Oculus VR repaired iPhones and modded videogame systems before getting into VR: http://www.wired.com/2014/05/oculus-rift-4/

If there’s a checklist for tech wunderkind, Oculus founder Palmer Luckey leaves no box unticked. There’s the shoelessness, for one; he commutes in sandals and regularly pads barefoot around the Oculus offices in Irvine, California. There’s the tousled hair, the anachronistic attachment to his 75-mpg 2001 Honda Insight, the can of vitamin-enriched sparkling blackberry juice seemingly glued to his hand, and the confidence that comes from knowing a lot of things about a lot of things (or possibly from all that juice).

But most of all, there’s the omnivorous curiosity. As a home-schooled teenager in Southern California, Luckey spent much of his free time tinkering with electronics—modding videogame consoles and repairing iPhones for extra cash, then spending the money on high-powered laser systems and upgrades for his gaming PC. The PC, in particular, became an obsession: Luckey found himself pouring tens of thousands of dollars into it. And soon, a hunt for 3-D monitors became a search for true immersion. As a kid, he’d been entranced by the idea of getting inside the videogames he played on his Gameboy Color. Virtual-world sci-fi like The Matrix and the anime show Yu-Gi-Oh! intensified the desire. Why, he asked himself, can’t we do that yet?

His modding and iPhone repair work had left him with a lot of money, so he bought a $400 Vuzix iWear VR920, then the most cutting-edge consumer VR headset—enthusiasts call them HMDs, for head-mounted displays—on the market. Then he moved on to the more expensive eMagin Z800 3DVisor. And he kept looking. Over time, through a combination of government auctions and private resellers, he would spend the money once earmarked for PC upgrades on more than 50 different units, building what he touts as the largest private collection in the world.



2014.09 - If you want to start a startup, go work for someone else
http://philosophyforprogrammers.blogspo ... -work.html
- Examples: Felix Dennis, Warren Buffett, 
- Counter-examples: Duncan Bannatyne, Richard Branson(? does working for his mother count?), 



Protect your work / be secretive if necessary



- Felix Dennis says this
- The Google guys did this:

Spurred by Page's obsession with Tesla, who unwittingly gave away his inventions by sharing them with others, Page and Brin zealously guarded the algorithms that created PageRank. ['Googled', p39]


- Bill Gates did this when people were copying his Basic



Get known / have connections



Important: The types of projects that get you well-known may be very different from the types of projects that are viable companies.
- IMO Zuck is a great example of this, facemash would not have been a good idea for a company but it was a great way for him to get his name out there.

The battle of life is already half won by the young man who is brought personally in contact with high officials; and the great aim of every boy should be to do something beyond the sphere of his duties--something which attracts the attention of those over him.

Source: The Autobiography of Andrew Carnegie

Students at my high school were able to get some famous cofounders to judge their event after cold-emailing them:

Alexis Ohanian, co-founder of Reddit, and Colin Kroll, co-founder of Vine are among the people signed up to judge, after receiving cold emails from Zoneraich and Berry.

They sent similar emails to many tech luminaries, including Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak.

“No harm in trying,” Zoneraich said.


http://www.nj.com/bergen/index.ssf/2014 ... judge.html

In 2007, Justin Kan and partners Emmett Shear, Michael Seibel and Kyle Vogt, started Justin.tv, a 24-7 live video feed of Kan’s life, broadcast via a webcam attached to his head.[6]
Kan’s “lifecasting” lasted about eight months. The novelty of Kan's concept attracted media attention, and resulting interviews with him included one by Ann Curry on the Today Show. Viewers accompanied Kan as he walked the streets of San Francisco, sometimes involved in both pre-planned events (trapeze lesson, dance lesson) and also spontaneous situations (being invited into the local Scientology center by a sidewalk recruiter).
Afterward, the company decided to transition to providing a live video platform so anyone could publish a live video stream. Justin.tv, the platform, launched in 2007[7][8] and is now one of the largest live video platforms in the world with more than 30 million unique users every month.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Kan

Richard Branson has repeatedly used publicity stunts to raise awareness of businesses he was starting.

Build up your social presence: have lots of people know who you are.

Make / do something cool / controversial
Ideas:
- A website-game that has you try to create passwords while following certain restrictions. And maybe you have to try to remember your passwords too.

Examples:
- Sean Parker got known via Napster, which probably helped him get accepted into Facebook and probably helped him help Facebook succeed
- Mark Zuckerberg got known at Harvard by releasing cool stuff (like FaceMash and programs to help people collaborate in their classes), which probably helped him get Facebook used by lots of Harvard students
- Ev Williams got known via Blogger, which helped him spread the word about Twitter
- Lots of music artists have to release several albums to gradually build a following before they release the album that really blows up
- Eminem got known to Detroit producers (the Bass brothers) by freestyling on the radio, and then got known to Dr. Dre by releasing two albums with the help of those Detroit producers. The first album was a failure but he learned from it and adjusted his style and the second album was a lot more successful.
- Felix Dennis was in the press after he was arrested for publishing a lewd cartoon, it was a big national story in the UK. John Lennon ended up recording a song as a show of support.

Gather interesting data
Examples:
- Those two MIT undergrads who gathered data on the relationship between spam emails and the stock prices of the stocks those emails were spamming about.
- If my understanding is correct, Larry Page downloaded the entire Internet (or attempted to) in order to test out his Google idea. That was data that no one else had. 
- Joel Greenblatt gathered interesting data as a college student that eventually helped him get a paper published:

Nearly a year after Graham’s death, Forbes magazine published a more detailed explanation of his formula in an article titled “Ben Graham’s Last Will and Testament.” The article seized the attention of Joel Greenblatt, then a 19-year-old college junior from Long Island who had left high school a year early to attend !e Wharton School. “A light bulb went off,” Joel said of reading the Forbes article. “I can’t tell you exactly what it was about it that made me very excited, but it had elements of the things I was interested in: how to look at companies, how to think about the stock market, how to do something with a formula that could actually make money. For whatever reason, that’s when I really got turned on to the stock market.”

The article inspired Joel to test Graham’s formula for a more recent period, from April 1972 to April 1978, a period that included both a severe bear market and a sharp recovery. He enlisted the help of two classmates, Bruce Newberg and Richard Pzena, to conduct this new study. “Joel was an intense, focused guy back in college,” remembered Richard, who now heads Pzena Investment Management, a $15 billion investment firm in New York. “But then and now, he had one of the most upbeat, enthusiastic, and decent dispositions of anybody I've known. He just made you feel like working with him was an honor.”

The historical data the three students needed for their research was not yet available in computer databases, so they sat in Wharton’s Lippincott Library with a stack of Standard & Poor’s stock guides. Starting with the A’s, they resolved to go line by line through the guides until they had collected a random and unbiased sample of companies. After several months of work, 750 stocks seemed like enough — although the students did not get as far into the alphabet as they had hoped. “We took just the A’s and B’s, which was a decent chunk of the universe at the time,” Joel remembered. “Physically, the three of us just couldn't do any more.”

The trio then entered their handwritten data into a DEC10, one of the few computers on campus at the time. “It took up an entire room, and was secured and climate-controlled,” Richard said. “You sat at a terminal and punched data onto IBM punch cards, and fed them into the computer for analysis.” They used the computer to back-test four model portfolios they had come up with, each based on slight variations of the same factors Graham himself had used.2 Just as Graham had, the students made no effort to evaluate individual companies, industries, or management teams and used only data that would have been widely available had they been managing the portfolios in real time.

The results were outstanding. Each of the four model portfolios beat its relevant index by over 10 percent a year after trading costs and taxes, and with only slightly more volatility. The top portfolio returned 29.2 percent per year, but any one of them would have beaten nearly every professionally managed portfolio over the same period.

Joel, who thought about one day becoming an author, wrote up their results as formally as he could and submitted the paper to several academic publications. One rejected it outright, and he heard nothing from the others until he got a letter from Peter Bernstein, who was then editor of the Journal of Portfolio Management. Bernstein agreed to publish the paper on one condition. “He said he loved the study,” Joel remembered. “But he added, ‘Could you please have someone who can write send it back?’” Joel duly made the language a little less formal, and the revised paper was eventually published in the summer of 1981.

Source: Santangel's Review (it's a really good article)


Join a school / club / business where you will meet people

- Larry/Sergey met the VCs that funded them through their Stanford professors, who knew VCs
- Larry/Sergey found their first real office (a garage and bottom floor of a house) because Sergey had dated the house owner's roommate at Stanford Business School









Assemble a team of moderately-successful people


Find someone who has been moderately successful but wants to become super-successful.
- You may not want to go after people who are super-successful because there may be a lot more competition for their attention and the marginal benefit that you can provide to them may be less than the marginal benefit that you can provide to someone else who is less successful (but still more successful than you).

Examples:
Kyle Bass in his mid-30s, or Ev after he sold Blogger for tens of millions, or Sean Parker after he'd founded Napster but didn't get super rich.
- There are some good quotes in Andrew Carnegie's autobio about this that I need to find. A crucial part of his success was that he knew who was good at what they did and who wasn't. Or as Felix Dennis said, he was good at hiring.
- Example: Felix Dennis says the only thing you need to be good at is hiring. And he says one of the top reasons a startup will fail is "skimping on talent".

Solve a ubiquitous problem


You want to pick something that everyone will be able to use. You may want to think ahead and see what technology is relatively new right now but will become ubiquitous in a few years' time. Mark Cuban stressed this in an interview, and it's why Twitter took off when it did.

Examples:
- Mark Cuban advising people to solve ubiquitous problems: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7sgICX5m0o&t=2m0s
Your Path to a $16B exit? Build a J2ME App
http://blog.textit.in/your-path-to-a-$1 ... a-j2me-app

So it finally happened, Facebook snatched up WhatsApp for the not so bargain price of $16B to the simultaneous head explosion of every entrepreneur in Silicon Valley. A common cry echoed around the world "But, but, how is WhatsApp any different than iMessage / Facebook Messenger / Hangouts?"

To that, I have one answer: J2ME

See, WhatsApp wasn't born in Silicon Valley on an iPhone, rather it fought its way to a $16B exit by providing an awesome messaging experience to the middle billion, those living on $10 a day. And you know what, on $10 a day you probably don't have an iPhone or an Android handset. Rather you are probably carrying around a "feature phone", one of a thousands variations of handsets built by Nokia or Samsung running a version of Java 2 Mobile Edition. (J2ME)

Writing J2ME apps is no cakewalk. While Android developers might whine about having to support myriad resolutions and versions of the API, J2ME ends up being less a standard and more a series of rough guidelines. There is no shortcut, you just have to test on every device, each with its own unique bugs and idiosyncrasies. Building a high quality app aimed at J2ME is the very definition of shlep, it is incredibly time consuming, boring and frustrating work.

That was the genius of WhatsApp really, they recognized that messaging apps are all about network effects and instead of focusing on the comparatively small market of the 'developed world', instead targeted the other 3 billion people who don't have smartphones. And at that they have been supremely successful.

If you are anywhere apart from the States, WhatsApp is the de facto standard for messaging. Here in Rwanda, it has far more penetration than Facebook, it is used by literally everybody who has a capable device. That came about not by having some edgy new user interface, or by a gimmick around disappearing messages, but by providing real value, value that can be measured in the pocketbook of a market that is massively under served.

 

Minimize the cost of joining / using your solution


You want the cost of joining to be as low as possible; that means you want to make it as easy as possible to start using.



Get powerful allies to fund you if necessary.

- Uber did this
- That pharma startup did this by getting powerful government people on their board



If your product is for a wide audience, use publicity stunts to get widespread attention.

- Richard Branson did this
- Uber did this (ice cream delivery, kitten delivery, Delorean, helicopter rides, etc.) Not everything they tried would be practical but the point is to get people talking about the company.



Protect Your Intellectual Property



Quora - How should I protect my IP?
http://www.quora.com/If-I-invent-someth ... -I-deserve

Jimmy Wales:
Before I answer your question directly (and I promise I will) let me just offer the opinion that young entrepreneurs often think this is a real problem which faces them, when in fact the opposite problem is much much much more likely to be the case: far from other people seeing your thing as "legen-wait for it-dary" as you put it , no one will care about you or your idea at all.

Notice that this is more true the more paranoid you are about it. Just a few days ago I got a 3 page pitch letter from someone who simply described to me in stereotypical buzzwords how I could add synergistic brand value to their revolutionary value-add concept that would blah blah blah - 3 pages with absolutely no information whatsoever about what the hell the person wants to do.

I remember when I first had the idea for a freely licensed encyclopedia written by volunteers. I remember a feeling of urgency and panic because the idea seemed so obvious that I thought lots of people would be competing with me, so I rushed out and hired Larry Sanger to work for me as editor in chief of the project, and we launched Nupedia as quickly as possible. Nearly two years later, with the project generally unsuccessful at that point, no one else was competing with us at all. My panic about someone rushing to compete with me was not justified.

Now, to answer your question directly because, despite my view that in general this isn't really the problem that you face, sometimes it is, and it's worth a few words about that.

First, if your idea is the sort of thing that could be reasonably patented, then you can work to file a patent. I'm not a big believer in this for most things (particularly not software or dot-com ideas, where I find patents to be useless for protecting startups and pernicious for the industry as a whole), but if your legendary concept is a genuine scientific/engineering invention, then by all means, get a patent.

Second, and I'm stealing this line from Facebook (probably Mark Zuckerberg said it first, I don't know): Move fast and break things. This is particularly important if there are "network externalities" in your idea, or any other kind of genuine "first mover advantage". (Though notice: both those concepts are much much much overused.)

Just get moving and don't look back.

Ok, so that is my direct answer, but now I want to go back and remind you of my first answer. THIS IS PROBABLY NOT THE PROBLEM THAT YOU REALLY HAVE. Far far more entrepreneurs have lost out on great opportunities because they were so paranoid about someone stealing their idea that they were unable to raise capital, unable to get started, unable to actually DO anything.

Hold onto equity



- Felix Dennis recommends trying to hold onto all of it
- Larry Page says you shouldn't worry about that; just try to get really good partners
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8192928
http://www.slicingpie.com/equity-splits ... niversity/

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