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Bank of Montreal (BMO)

This is the bank that John T Reed has put his money in; he didn't seem to do any due diligence, though.

Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Montreal

BMO's Annual Report:
http://www.bmo.com/home/about/banking/i ... -circulars
- The annual report might tell you how exposed they are to foreign debts.

Investor Relations:
http://www.bmo.com/home/about/banking/i ... s?nav=left
2011/12/02 - Spoke with Michael Chase. He directed me to page 16 of the Q3 Report to Shareholders, and page 37 of the Supplementary Information. Both of those pages discuss exposure to foreign debt. Both documents are at this link:
http://www.bmo.com/home/about/banking/i ... ly-results
- I asked him if a lot of people have been asking about this, and he said they've had "a couple" ask.
- I asked him how I could tell how many foreign gov bonds BMO owned (eg US Treasuries), and he said that they didn't disclose that information.
- Q: Does BMO sell CDS (default insurance)? Did they sell any CDS on EU countries?

Supplementary Material Qs:
- What is "specific allowance" (p37)?
- What's the difference between gross and net loans and acceptances?
- What's an acceptance?

Investing in a Canadian Bank Account

This idea came from a speech Michael Burry gave at vanderbilt in which he gives a history of the subprime crisis:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fx2ClTpn ... re=related
- at 28:35 he recommends opening a bank account in Canada, and when I emailed John T Reed about it I found out Reed was doing the same thing.

Q: Why invest in a Canadian bank account?
A:

Q: What is the percentage-range that a person might lose if they left their money in a US bank account?
A: [how much did ppl lose in argentina in 2001?]

Q: Why not just invest in an American bank with Canadian dollars?
A: My initial guess is that American banks would be riskier b/c they're more exposed to the American dollar; if there's a run on the bank it may affect you somehow. I'd like a more specific answer to this question, though.

Q: Why not invest in a Canadian bank with US branches?
A:

Q: Which Canadian bank should you invest in?
A: I asked John T Reed which bank he'd opened an account with, and he said, "BMO. A friend who lives there recommended it. I did not think there was a need to distinguish among the biggest Canadian banks for this purpose. I also opened it at the main Vancouver branch thinking to fanciest branches with the highest tone clientele are typically used to giving better service."
- My worry is that a Canadian bank may have made loans to foreign banks or governments, which would mean they would be exposed to that risk. It might be better to open an account with a smaller bank to avoid that risk.

Q: How do you know if the Canadian bank you give your money to will be mixed up in foreign risks (e.g. lending money to riskier banks/countries).
A:

Q: How easy will it be to get your money out?
A:

Q: How easy will it be to deposit more money?
A:

Q: Do you need to be a Canadian citizen/resident?
A: I called BMO and the guy said you don't need to be a resident, but if you're not a resident then you will need to go in person to open the account. Residents can just apply online.

Q: How would I get to Canada to open the account?
A: Bus, train, plane, or car. Taking a bus seems to be the cheapest way.
Megabus from DC to Toronto seems to be the cheapest bus - $50 round-trip
http://us.megabus.com/default.aspx

Japan

2012/01/08 - The Myth of Japan’s Failure
By EAMONN FINGLETON
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/opini ... ccess.html
- basically he argues that the metrics people in the US use to judge Japan's economy since the early '90s are no good, and that in fact Japan may very well have done better since the early 90s than the US. he whips out a whole bunch of other metrics by which to judge japan, and they do seem to make japan seem pretty nice.
- stuff he mentions:
- longtime Japan watchers like Ivan P. Hall and Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. 
- William J. Holstein, a prominent Japan watcher since the early 1980s
- “The Next 100 Years,” by the consultant George Friedman