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Aggregate Polls
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The purpose of this bet is mainly to get practice doing research, following news, and increasing / decreasing my stake as I gain / lose confidence in the position I've taken.
Polls
- RealClear Politics - 2016 Republican PrimaryPredictIt - Will Donald Trump win the 2016 Republican
Betting / prediction sites
- RealClear Politics - 2016 Early Primary State Polls
- RealClear Politics - Latest Polls
- PollingReport.com - White House 2016: Republican Nomination
Betting / prediction sites
- PredictIt - Will Donald Trump win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?
- OddsChecker - US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE BETTING ODDS
- https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664938
- Good Judgment™ Open - Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?
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- I suspect this is the most-likely way that Trump would lose, but I'm not convinced Republicans hate Trump enough to go after him with the necessary ferocity.
- 2015.12.04 - Miami Herald - Top Bush donor pays for ad attacking Trump
Signs that people may be coming around to the idea of a Trump nomination
- 2015.12.24 - RealClear Politics - Colbert: Nice to Know Political Establishment Can't Control The 36% Trump GOP Vote
- 2015.12.24 - RealClear Politics - Trump Warns: "I Haven't Really Gone After Hillary Yet And There's A Lot To Go After"
- Note the way the Fox reporter talks to him, acknowledging that he may actually win the nomination.
Misc info sources
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- 2015.12.13 - NR - Losing Iowa Could Be Trump’s Kryptonite
David Brady and Douglas Rivers of the Hoover Institution say the demographics of Trump voters suggest they might not show up at the caucuses after all. Trump supporters are largely older, less wealthy, and less educated. Half of his voters have a high-school diploma, but just 19 percent have a college degree. Just over a third earn less than $50,000, while 11 percent make six figures or more. As pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson pointed out at NRO last week: “There is plenty of data to suggest that Trump voters are less likely to vote than others.”
(...)Luntz doesn’t see Trump fading before Iowa votes, but his research shows a potential vulnerability if Trump is “shown to have hurt people who have worked for him.” Karl Rove, who was White House political director under George W. Bush, has hinted that those ads are coming. He wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday:
Democrats would attack Mr. Trump, a target-rich candidate, with an endless stream of ads. Perhaps they would open with his immortal line from the Cleveland debate — that he had “taken advantage of the laws of this country” in having his companies declare bankruptcy four times. This footage might be followed by compelling testimony from contractors, small-business people, and bondholders whom he stiffed. America has never elected a president with that kind of a dubious business record.
Among people who have done business with Trump are many who feel they have been abused by him. Tama Starr, president of the sign-design company Artkraft Strauss (which lowered the Times Square silver ball that marked New Year’s Eve for decades), has written about what she calls “the ugly art of Trump’s deals.” She and others have told me that it’s common for Trump to pay 80 percent of a project, withhold the remainder of what is owed by claiming dissatisfaction with the work, and then force creditors to either give up on payment or engage in expensive litigation that might cost more than the money owed.
- 2015.12.13 - NJ.com - 5 things to know about latest GOP polls (and where Trump stands)
Cruz's gains are coming at Carson's expense.
(...)Most of the respondents were called after Trump's comments and the NBC/Journal and Register/Bloomberg polls showed his support rising, not falling.
In addition, a plurality of likely Iowa caucus goers in both the Fox and Register/Bloomberg polls said Trump had the best chance of defeating former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nominee.
- 2015.12.21 - WND - Phyllis Schlafly: Trump is 'last hope for America'
- 2015.12.21 - LA Times - Polls may actually underestimate Trump's support, study finds
The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and media company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.
Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.
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The most telling part of the experiment, however, was that not all types of people responded the same way. Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump's support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a significant difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.The most likely explanation for that education gap, Dropp and his colleagues believe, is a well-known problem known as social-desirability bias -- the tendency of people to not want to confess unpopular views to a pollster.
Blue-collar voters don't feel embarrassed about supporting Trump, who is very popular in their communities, the pollsters suggested. But many college-educated Republicans may hesitate to admit their attraction to Trump, the experiment indicates.
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