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Articles supporting a prediction that Trump will win
- 2015.12.13 - NJ.com - 5 things to know about latest GOP polls (and where Trump stands)
Cruz's gains are coming at Carson's expense.
(...)Most of the respondents were called after Trump's comments and the NBC/Journal and Register/Bloomberg polls showed his support rising, not falling.
In addition, a plurality of likely Iowa caucus goers in both the Fox and Register/Bloomberg polls said Trump had the best chance of defeating former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nominee.
- 2015.12.21 - WND - Phyllis Schlafly: Trump is 'last hope for America'
- 2015.12.21 - LA Times - Polls may actually underestimate Trump's support, study finds
The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and media company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.
Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.
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The most telling part of the experiment, however, was that not all types of people responded the same way. Among blue-collar Republicans, who have formed the core of Trump's support, the polls were about the same regardless of method. But among college-educated Republicans, a significant difference appeared, with Trump scoring 9 points better in the online poll.The most likely explanation for that education gap, Dropp and his colleagues believe, is a well-known problem known as social-desirability bias -- the tendency of people to not want to confess unpopular views to a pollster.
Blue-collar voters don't feel embarrassed about supporting Trump, who is very popular in their communities, the pollsters suggested. But many college-educated Republicans may hesitate to admit their attraction to Trump, the experiment indicates.
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