| Child pages (Children Display) |
|---|
...
36:52 - His articles have appeared in the WSJ, Washington Times, San Francisco Chronicle,
37:02 - Also rated a national master in the US Chess Federation
39:30 - He brings up the example of hyperinflation in Argentina
- This talk was less than a year after he had started Confinity (Dec '98), only ~8 months after merging with Elon Musk's X.com.
- The talk seems to explain how he came to start Confinity. It seems he probably got the idea from working as a trader.
- It's interesting to see Thiel talking before he had achieved his first success.
- He has few instances of saying 'umm' or 'uhh' or 'you know' or 'like'.
- His hair is kept neat, he's got a collared shirt and jacket.
- He uses a lot of ten-dollar words like 'impute', 'conglomeration', 'extent', 'government actors', 'lest', 'apparatus', 'arise', 'consolidation', 'under the auspices of', 'countervailing forces', 'exacerbated'
- He throws out a lot of examples, which is one of the heuristics I use to judge if someone has done their homework on an issue.
49:09 - He talks about just about everybody having internet-enabled cellphones within 5 years.
49:50 - He talks about how governments will have to decide if they're going to regulate the communications network (which we now see happening).
2004 - News story on the book 'The PayPal Wars'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YEXBEq9vJU
- There's a short clip of
2004.01.21 - Talk at Stanford Technology Ventures Program
http://ecorner.stanford.edu/authorMater ... l?mid=1021
Speaker(s): Max Levchin , Peter Thiel
- the original concept of paypal was to allow for secure transmission of money between palm pilots via an IR link
- when trying to convince someone to move out to Palo Alto, have them come when it's really cold in their home state (e.g. January)
- they only hired friends at first
- they used a stunt to market their product: they transferred $3 million from the venture capitalists to their own account in front of news cameras
- how do you get customers?
1) advertising (billboards) - this wasn't cost effective b/c it had started to cost $100,000 for 1 month and each sign was only seen for 6-10 seconds
2) work with a big partner who will tell the world about your product; they met with mid-level execs at HSBC through a friend(?) and realized they wouldn't be able to help b/c the bank knew nothing about how to reach people (they were just getting into television advertising)
3) selling dollar bills for $0.85 - anyone who joined got $10; if you recruited someone you got an additional $10. they realized it was smarter b/c the cost per customer was $20, whereas the cost of online click ads was $60-100 per new customer.
paypal really started to take off b/c people selling stuff on ebay (another new company at that time) needed a way of paying each other.
they were burning $10 million a month in payments to new customers; rather than reduce the bonus they decided to raise more money
they merged with a competitor before looking for more money
their second round raised $100 million
section: "Coping with Fraud"
the guy on the right said that while paypal's business seems fairly simple on the surface, their real success is the ability to reduce fraud. there's a lot going on under the hood.
peter thiel described how paypal was in an arm's race with russian mobsters; as both paypal and the mobsters got more sophisticated, the mobsters got better at wiping out paypal's competitors, which made it impossible for paypal's customers to go anywhere else
section: "Viral Marketing"
Thiel - "if there's an easy formula, that's not a business you want to go into"
section: "Beating Competition"
Thiel - there are three important factors in UI: privacy, security, and convenience; if you get to 100% on any two of them the other one will be at 0%
- There was a whole academic circle of people who were writing papers about how digital cash would never work. lesson: just because a lot of people are saying something can't work doesn't mean they're right.
section: "Negotiating with Ebay"
Thiel - They were going to function as the cash registers to Ebay's Wal-Mart, but they were worried that Ebay would get some people on the inside to figure out how to handle the cash register portion themselves. Ebay had problems, though, dealing with the fraud-protection and everything else. They tried to create something, and it was secure, but it wasn't convenient, which is why it didn't work.
Thiel - They had a 1.5 year negotiating period, with 5 different rounds. The 4th round lasted 6 weeks straight, with many meetings having people throwing up numbers to back their proposed valuations
...
2007.11.01 - WSJ - Interview with Peter Thiel
- he thinks old-media companies should just try to k
- "I tend to invest in companies because I think the people are intelligent" ("he's creative, he works hard, and he's smart")
05:29 - Q: What do you think is overhyped? What worries you?
06:40 - There are two big questions Facebook has: 1) will the growth continue, and 2) can they figure out a revenue model that is more-targeted, and that's the holy grail.
08:25 - I think people talk too much about there being a bubble. You can't have a bubble if there are no IPOs. The venture capital industry is still living in 1999.
09:50 - We had a boom and a bust. And people remember the bust more than the boom, so people are dominated by fear.
2009 - Capital IQ Investor Leadership Series: Peter Thiel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKS5Tad7Qzw [in 4 parts]
- Observation: "if [the tech sector in Silicon Valley] is not enough to actually drive things in California, is it really enough to drive things in the US and the world as a whole?"
- Observation: People talk about exponential growth in technology and yet median wages have remained stagnant. [My response: but you can have the same wage and yet be able to purchase more with it; e.g. buying stuff at Wal-Mart, having a computer exponentially faster than 20 years ago, having tons of free stuff on the internet, having an iPod instead of a tape deck, having an iPad instead of a notepad]
- His Q: Why has there been such an incredible disconnect between our technological innovation and the changes in our standards of living [time spent working, etc.]?
- His Q: Do you really know that things will continue to grow the way it has over the past 100 years?
- Him: If there was no growth people would need to work until they were 80 and save 40% of their income.
- His Observation: We have 30-50 times as many scientists and yet he doesn't think we're progressing much faster than at that time.
- He thinks investing in Google is basically a bet against new search technology
- He thinks China's big strength over the US is that they think 30-40 years ahead
- In Part 4 he seems to agree with John T Reed that things are seriously messed up in the world economy and there is going to have to be a correction in how the markets view the value of the dollar; he calls it the "disconnect between the real economy and the financial economy". He says this in response to a question on why his fund performed poorly in a particular year; if you look it up on wikipedia it was because he bet that the dollar would drop in value, and it didn't. John T Reed is making the same prediction [he thinks people are going to stop lending the US money, at which point the US will have to inflate its currency or say "we can't pay you guys who we owe money to, so we're not going to even try", aka defaulting on its debt].
terms referred to in the speech:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_ ... _recession
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX
2008.12.05 - Hoover Institution - The U.S. Economy with Peter Thiel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu4VkOBq4NE
- "there's less volatility as a result of the shift to a service economy, but there's probably also less growth [because unlike a factory owner who can create a larger factory, it's harder to scale up your services] [I noticed the very same thing when thinking about the difference between working as a tutor and creating a factory]
- 2009.04.13 - Cato Unbound - The Education of a Libertarian
- "I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible"
- "Those who have argued for free markets have been screaming into a hurricane."
- "The 1920s were the last decade in American history during which one could be genuinely optimistic about politics. Since 1920, the vast increase in welfare beneficiaries and the extension of the franchise to women — two constituencies that are notoriously tough for libertarians — have rendered the notion of “capitalist democracy” into an oxymoron."
- "I no longer believe that politics encompasses all possible futures of our world. In our time, the great task for libertarians is to find an escape from politics in all its forms (...) Because there are no truly free places left in our world, I suspect that the mode for escape must involve some sort of new and hitherto untried process that leads us to some undiscovered country; and for this reason I have focused my efforts on new technologies that may create a new space for freedom."
- "Between cyberspace and outer space lies the possibility of settling the oceans."
- What I don't get about seasteading is that countries already exert tremendous pressure outside their borders through the use of sanctions and thread of military force (drones, etc.). What leads Peter to think that that wouldn't also hold true for seasteading? I guess it depends on what exactly he wants to do offshore.
------
2011 - BigThink - How to End the Google Monopoly
http://bigthink.com/videos/how-to-end-t ... e-monopoly
2011 (sometime between Fall of 2010 and Spring of 2011) - Into the night with Garry Kasparov and Peter Thiel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rOvEPYNEsc
- VERY VERY interesting, you get a real sense of what these guys are like to hang out with.
- You get to see Peter play chess (he gives his rating as around 2300)
- At the end Thiel talks about Buffett
- I need to go back through this whole thing and write up a synopsis and write down the main quotes.
2011.10 - IntelligenceSquared Debates - Too Many Kids Go To College
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VTQ-dBYSlQ
...
2012 - Peter Thiel’s CS183: Startup—Stanford, Spring 2012
http://blakemasters.tumblr.com/peter-th ... 83-startup
2012.02.21 - Harvard Business School - John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum - A Conversation with Peter Thiel and Niall Ferguson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exfbmY7mg8s
2012.02.21 - Panel w/ Peter Thiel and Aubrey de Grey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJDlzvqrPLk
It's a bit of a meh discussion.
~11mins -
1) He says that he was very serious about chess in high school, and it was when he saw the computers getting better than the humans that he realized that maybe he wasn't spending his time in the most valuable way.
2) He thinks that there are too many smart people in physics (ie some of them should be in other fields)
12:45 - If you try to chase status or money for their own sake, you probably won't succeed. It's the guys who love the process who make it.
2012.03.30-31 - World Affairs Council - Peter Thiel and Charles Bolden on The World in 2050: What is the Next Big Idea?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEmxRBpCoo0
2012.07 - Fortune - Dinner and Debate with Eric Schmidt and Peter Thiel
http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/gr ... y_20120717
- There's an AMAZING segment where Thiel rips into Schmidt for not spending more of their $50 billion in cash to innovate. Schmidt responds very candidly: "What you find out when you get to our level is that there are barriers that aren't cash barriers." (hiring, regulation)
...
- 2013 - SXSW Interactive - Peter Thiel: You Are Not a Lottery Ticket
- 24:40 - He shows his graph of how nobody knows what to do with money:
- 1) sell company shares, make money
- 2) give money to large bank
- 3) large bank gives money to portfolio of institutional investors
- 4) institutional investor gives money to portfolio of stocks
- 5) each company seeks to generate free cash flows
- 6) repeat
- 26:30 - We prefer investing in companies that are able to reinvest all their profits. If a company is just accumulating money it suggests they don't know what to do next.
- 24:40 - He shows his graph of how nobody knows what to do with money:
- 2013.04.29 - Milken Institute - In Tech We Trust? A Debate with Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtZbWnIALeE
- IMO Andreessen does a much better job of presenting his opinions. The nature of his evidence feels more convincing, and I like how he pre-emptively acknowledged weaknesses in his evidence.
- In an interview with Tim Ferriss, Marc admits that he spent weeks preparing for the debate.
...
...
- You can find my full summary of the talk here: Magnus Carlsen
- I'll just list Thiel's comments / questions here:
- - This is all about asking Carlsen questions. Thiel asks great, great questions. Carlsen gives some great answers to Thiel's questions, some OK answers to audience questions.
- The first few minutes are all
- 7:30 - Thiel: I was 7th in the US in the under-13 age category, but someone like Carlsen would be expected to beat me 100 times for every time I beat him (if we were both the same age).
- 8:50 - Q from Thiel: When did you start playing chess? What year did you start to really improve?
- 10:45 - Q from Thiel: At what point did you decide to focus on playing chess for a living?
- 11:30 - Q from Thiel: Is there something you can tell us about the process by which someone becomes a great chess player?
- 13:10 - Q from Thiel: Were there any chess players you particularly looked up to?
- 14:30 - Q from Thiel: Has does one go about improving when you're at the level you're at today?
- 15:30 - Q from Thiel: Do you think you have to learn chess as a kid, or can you learn it at any time in your life?
- 16:10 - Q from Thiel: Is chess a sport, an art, or a science?
- 17:00 - Q from Thiel: Is there any psychological aspect to chess?
- 18:20 - Q from Thiel: Is there a physical fitness component? Do you find you play better if you're healthy?
- 19:13 - Q from Thiel: How have computers changed chess in the last 30 years?
- 21:50 - Q from Thiel: Have computers made chess more tactical?
- 23:50 - Q from Thiel: You generally don't play against computers?
- 24:38 - Q from Thiel: Do you learn the most from games you lose, or games you win?
- 42:10 - Q from Thiel: How much do you think chess carries over to life?
- 44:00 - Q from audience:
- 48:50 - Q from Thiel: Do you find you learn more from studying than from playing? Or is it a combination of both?
- 50:30 - Q from Thiel: Where do you think chess is going to go in 20-30 years? Do you think it'll be fully solved?
- 1:00:00 - Q from Thiel: Is playing too much blitz bad for your full game?
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYA4yM2cWHA
Beck doesn't give a great interview IMO, he doesn't seem to know enough about Thiel to ask very interesting questions.
first few minutes are a profile of Thiel
05:00 - Q: How do we stop the NSA and other government agencies from tracking us?
A: We need to track what the government is doing.
- He says Snowden is both a traitor and a hero, and
07:00 - Q: Brave New World or 1984; which one is right?
A: He thinks BRNW is more likely (people controlled through pleasure)
08:15 - Q: Does a company like Google fear the government or vice versa?
A: The government is much bigger than Google. The government abuses are much bigger. The government has guns, Google does not have guns.
8:50 - Q: You talk about going beyond politics. You're not sure if the political system works anymore.
A: I have a schizo view on politics. It's very important, but it's also very hard to change.
He characterizes Bernanke's moves as money-printing.
10:15 - Q: When I first met all these Silicon Valley guys I thought they were liberals, but now I see them as more libertarian.
Glen Beck talks about how he hopes the gov messes with SV techies so they push back.
~13:00 - Thiel
13:45 - Q: Are entrepreneurs just in it for the money?
A: They're mostly in it for other reasons. [bs answer]
15:00 - Q: The people in the valley, what are their underlying principles?
A: They're generally politically naive. They're instincts are libertarian, but their politics end up liberal b/c that's what's cool.
16:00 - Q: How do we go from Marx / Che being cool to having Jefferson being cool? [bs phrasing of the question IMO, choosing the most controversial lib and the least controversial conservative]
A: I'm not sure.
18:00 - Thiel gives his common point about the masses fearing technology, with the popular movies being an example.
19:00 - Beck says something like "people are just tired of virtual everything"
20:00 - Beck rambles for a few minutes, I think he's talking about people being afraid of change
23:30 - !! Thiel talks about what replaces college.
24:30 - Q: Do you know David Glertner?
24:50 - Thiel: I don't think there's a single answer. I don't think there's going to be a single alternative system.
25:20 - Q: You're talking about not having one system anymore. That gives people a lot of discomfort; I've been thinking about the shared experiences we used to have that are now gone. It seems everything is heading in that direction. Can you keep a culture together when it's fragmented that much.
A: I don't know.
27:30 - Thiel: One of the biggest political problems we have is political correctness. We need a diversity of ideas.
28:30 - !!! - Thiel: When people use the word "science" that's often a 'tell' like in poker, we have "social science" and "political science" but not "physical science". So I think "climate science" is a bit exaggerated.
30:00 - !!! - Beck points out that Thiel is a gay evangelical Christian. I didn't know he was Christian (or I forgot). That's bizarre.
Q: When people rip you apart from both sides of the political spectrum, how do you deal with that?
A: You try to ignore it.
31:30 - Thiel talks about his favorite interview question ("What's something that's true that most people don't agree with")
There's this interview question I always like asking people, "tell me something that's true that very few people agree with you on". It's a very hard question to answer. And it's not because people don't have answers, they actually have lots of answers to it. It's because they're uncomfortable answering it in the context of an interview, because the answer has to be something that the person asking you won't agree with, and we're always nervous about doing that. We always want to fit in, and this pressure to fit in is really powerful.
32:50 - Q: How do we get libertarians and religious people to make peace?
Thiel talks for a few minutes about christianity
The last few minutes are them talking about how it's good to spend some time around people with different political opinions.
...
...
- Great back-and-forth
...
- She asks him what he thinks about the SV tv show
- 2014.09.10 - TechCrunch Disrupt (SF) - Backstage
...
TechCrunch: Hi everybody I'm Josh Constine here at TechCrunch Disrupt SF, and I'm here with Peter Thiel of Founder's Fund and Mithril Capital. Now, you've talked a lot about how you need to choose companies that might seem crazy at first to the average person and otherwise it'd be an idea that somebody had already taken. How do you tell the difference between crazy and crazy like a fox, something that will actually pan out? [Nathan: Great question!]
Thiel: Well you try to always evaluate the substance afresh. So, does the technology work? You can ask questions about, "What's the prehistory of the founders? Have they been working together for a while? Are they going to give up at the first sign of trouble?" So I think you want to always focus on the substance. There are no shortcuts.
TechCrunch: So you try to avoid coming in with biases about what can and can't work ahead of time.
Thiel: Yeah, there's always a temptation to come up with all sorts of one-sentence rules and we're as guilty of that as anybody, but what I think what's gone best is, you find something interesting about it, and then you try not to get to a yes-or-no decision right away. You try to really understand the substance, keep an open mind, and understand that. So substance over process, every time.
TechCrunch: So, surely a hard question to answer--because it's very generic and every startup is different--but when you hear an idea and you're wondering if it can really work, what is your go-to follow-up question to ask an entrepreneur pitching you about...what is there philosophy or long-term vision or how likely they are to succeed at it? [Nathan: Great question!]
Thiel: Well, you always want to get the team, the technology, and the business strategy. You have to get all three of those to work. And so if people want to talk about the technology, we'll talk about the people and the business strategy. So you go to the other two topics if they don't want to talk about them that much.
[...]
Thiel: I think the reality is that what's unusual about the tech industry in silicon valley is that the inventors are capturing anything at all. The history of innovation has been one where most of the people who invent things get nothing at all. And so the WRight brothers came up with the first airplane but didn't get rich. Or even the original Edison vs. Tesla, you could say Tesla was the greater inventor and that was the better way to go, but somehow Edison edged out Tesla. And so most innovation has not actually gone to the people who came up with things. To make money you have to do two things: #1 you have to create something of value for the world, and #2 you have to capture some fraction of the value you create. And often people have completely failed at doing the second. So I think Silicon Valley is very unusual in that there's this large class of innovative people that are actually able to capture some fraction of the value they're creating.
...
2014.09.10 - Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?
http://danwang.co/why-is-peter-thiel-pe ... nnovation/
- good selection of quotes from talks Thiel has given
- also, good links to other talks by Thiel. I should merge that into this list.
2014.09.14 - BusinessInsider - Peter Thiel: Luck Is Just An Excuse For Not Working Hard Enough
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-th ... z3RyPRl21m
http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-th ... ard-2014-9
...
2014.10.07 - Stanford - Lecture 5 - How to Start a Startup
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_0dVHMpJlo
- This seems to be the same set of ideas found in Zero to One.
- Yay! Andrew Rohn (a YouTube user) summarized the talk:
00:53 Talk topic: If you're starting a company you always want to found a monopoly. Hence, "competition is for losers".
1:00 Capturing value: Basic idea is to create x dollars of value and then capture some percentage y of that. e.g. Airlines have a much bigger pie than Google but Google has larger profit margins and so does much better.
4:30 The advantages of a monopoly.
10:15 How Google lies about their search/advertising monopoly position.
13:27 How to build a monopoly: Start with a small market and expand. Go after a small market that is ignored. e.g. Amazon went from books to a general store.
18:46 Characteristics of a monopoly: 1) proprietary technology - a technology that's an order of magnitude better 2) network effects 3) economies of scale 4) branding
23:05 Last mover advantage: most value exists far in the future. We overvalue growth rates and undervalue durability. Will the company still be around in a decade?
28:00 History of innovation: Historically, scientists never make money off their inventions. Their value was never actually captured.
38:00 Critically examining the concept of competition itself.
Q&A
43:03 "Which aspects of a monopoly does Google et al have?"
44:55 "What do you think of lean startups and its iterative methodologies?"
46:42 "You talk about last mover advantage but that doesn't imply a pre-existing market i.e. no monopoly to be had?"
48:00 "How do you recommend stop seeing competition as validation?"
...