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How to evaluate a startup
2011.03 - AVC - Passing on Airbnb
We couldn't wrap our heads around air mattresses on the living room floors as the next hotel room and did not chase the deal. Others saw the amazing team that we saw, funded them, and the rest is history. Airbnb is well on its way to building the "eBay of spaces." I'm pretty sure it will be a billion dollar business in time.
We made the classic mistake that all investors make. We focused too much on what they were doing at the time and not enough on what they could do, would do, and did do. I am proud that our portfolio is full of companies where we saw the vision before other investors did and backed a great team. But we don't always get it right. We missed Airbnb even though we loved the team. Big mistake.
Websites featuring new products
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Gasoline delivery
Potential problems / unanswered questions
- Why now? Why couldn't this have happened 5, 10, 20, 30 years ago?
- Many people are ridiculous about getting the cheapest gas possible. They seem to be very price-sensitive. You can't just be cheaper than the average price in the region, you'll need tot be cheaper than the lowest priced place the person can get gas at.
- Cars seem to be transitioning to electric. If this is a 10 or 20 year company, what happens when most cars are electric?
Reasons I'm optimistic
- Gas stations are often on high-visibility, valuable land. Like street corners. That probably forces them to charge a markup that can be undercut.